32°S · Capital certainty simulator

How far can your investment drift?

A Monte Carlo simulation: 20,000 scenarios on your budget to see the real probability of staying within plan. It's a rough estimate, not a budget.

Your project

Base budget

Uncertainty ±30%

Contingency 10%

Triangular model with overrun bias (upward deviations are more likely than downward), as usually happens in capital projects.

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Probability of staying within budget + contingency

P50 (median)

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P80

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P90

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Cap (base+cont.)

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scenarioscap (base+contingency)P80